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Acolossal asteroid, named 99942 Apophis or the 'God of Chaos,' is once again drawing attention as scientists reevaluate its trajectory. Once thought to have a potential impact chance, recent findings have shifted the narrative, keeping scientists on high alert
Trajectory Re-Evaluation
Discovered in 2004, Apophis initially had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029. However, additional observations led experts to rule out any collision in 2029 or 2036. Despite this, the asteroid’s updated trajectory has stirred new worries about its future path.
Canadian space scientist Paul Wiegert has sparked fresh discussions about Apophis. His research suggests that while the asteroid is on a close approach trajectory, a collision with a smaller object could alter its course. Wiegert estimates a one in two billion chance of such an event. He notes that for Apophis to change direction, a small object at least 3.4 meters wide would need to collide with it at over 510 meters per second, according to a report by The Mirror US.
Risk Assessment
Wiegert’s analysis indicates that even a slight nudge would make the likelihood of Apophis redirecting towards Earth extremely low, at just 5%. To put this into perspective, the chances of a catastrophic collision are less than 1 in 2 billion. This risk is comparable to winning the lottery multiple times.
Despite these assurances, Apophis remains one of the largest asteroids set to pass near Earth in recent years. The asteroid has been unmonitored since May 2021 and will stay off the radar until 2027 due to its position. As the 2029 approach draws closer, experts remain vigilant about this cosmic giant.
