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Following the horrific terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam on 22 April, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to cut short his State visit to Saudi Arabia and return to New Delhi the same evening. Yet, even in that brief diplomatic window, his engagements with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yielded more than just protocol pleasantries. The visit marked a significant deepening of the India–Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership. More importantly, it delivered one of the strongest and most unequivocal condemnations of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
From personally extending condolences to making it public on social media, Saudi Arabia’s support to India was not merely a symbolic gesture. On many fronts, it was a clear signal that a key player in the Muslim world is moving away from the old rhetoric and aligning more firmly with global norms on counter-terrorism.
In the Saudi Arabia–India joint statement, the 30th point adds that, “both sides also stressed the importance of strengthening security cooperation in the field of combating terrorism and its financing. Both sides emphasised that terrorism, in all its forms, remains one of the gravest threats to humanity. They agreed that there cannot be any justification for any act of terror for any reason whatsoever.” This stands out as one of the strongest condemnations of terrorism from a major Muslim country.
But what is exceptional and a take-a-note moment is the shifting paradigm in the Muslim world toward Pakistan. Today, foreign policy in parts of the Gulf is increasingly being guided by strategic, security, and global priorities rather than just religious or ideological affiliations. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is a new-generation reformer who has been strongly against fundamentalist ideology.
This may well mean trouble for Pakistan, which has in the past found resonance in religious rhetoric to sustain its narratives on issues like Kashmir.
The evolved Muslim world
From the heydays of terrorism in Pakistan throughout the 1990s and 2000s, Islamabad often framed its position on the Kashmir issue as having broad backing from the Muslim world. This support, whether political or rhetorical, was sometimes used by the establishment within Pakistan to justify or legitimise the activities of non-State actors.
While much of the Muslim world has since evolved in its approach to such issues—embracing reforms and distancing from extremist narratives—Pakistan has been slow to adapt to these changes.
Just a few days ago, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, in a loaded speech, targeted India. He affirmed his position on taking vengeance with remarks like Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein”—something that has been a metaphor for Pakistani leadership in their speeches.
In the same speech, Munir claimed, “In the entire history of humanity, there have only been two states founded on the basis of the Kalma (Islamic declaration of faith). The first was Riyasat-e-Taiyyaba, which today is known as Madina (Saudi Arabia). The second state, after 1,300 years, has been created by Allah Almighty for you people (Pakistan), on the foundation of the Kalma.”
Not sure how many countries in the Muslim world agree to Munir’s narrative on Pakistan’s creation—but that is what the Pakistani establishment wants its people to believe. However, the question remains, how much longer will Pakistan be able to sell this narrative to the Muslim world?
Perhaps, Malaysia and Azerbaijan may still support Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, and that may be all. The growing people-to-people, trade, defence, science and technological ties between India and the Muslim-dominated countries have weakened any support that Pakistan had for just being a Muslim country.
It’s worth recalling that in 2020, Pakistan was infuriated with the Saudi Arabia-led Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for its reluctance to convene a meeting on the Kashmir issue. In response, then Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, “I am once again respectfully telling OIC that a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers is our expectation. If you cannot convene it, then I’ll be compelled to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir and support the oppressed Kashmiris.”
Too close to China
While Pakistan may continue to believe that the Kashmir issue holds emotional sway over the Muslim world—especially in the Gulf—it seems to increasingly miss the point of how dramatically the geopolitics has evolved. Today’s Gulf is not only economically and diplomatically aligned with the West and the US but also growing steadily closer to India.
The most recent example, perhaps the most tangible one, is that the Gulf countries are key stakeholders in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). It is an ambitious infrastructure and trade project that emphasises connectivity, stability, and economic diversification as the new priorities over ideological alignment.
Even if the investments from the Gulf were to flow into Pakistan, political instability and the insurgency in Balochistan make the investors wary about the returns.
At the same time, Pakistan may have further complicated its position by moving too close to China, becoming increasingly aligned with the China-Russia nexus in the region. Islamabad seems to be seeking some form of security guarantees in exchange for its strategic offerings to Beijing, especially as its relationship with the US continues to deteriorate.
However, this growing dependence on China comes with its own vulnerabilities—mainly the safety of Chinese interests in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. Repeated attacks have targeted Chinese nationals and projects. After all, China means business and offers no freebies.
At the same time, Pakistan’s traditional allies in the Muslim world are no longer offering blanket support.
It is not just the Gulf or West Asia, it is the wider Muslim world, including the World Muslim League, and Pakistan’s closest Muslim neighbours, Iran and Taliban-led Afghanistan, who have condemned the barbaric attack in India’s Kashmir valley.
As India takes measures to counter Pakistan, including the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and demanding that it renounce its support for cross-border terrorism, Pakistan’s deep state must reconsider the reliability of support it once enjoyed from the Muslim world. And reflect on whether its new-found strategic partnerships can be counted on to offer unconditional backing forever.
Rishi Gupta is the Assistant Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi. He writes on the Asia-Pacific affairs, strategic Himalayas, and South Asian geopolitics. He tweets @RishiGupta_JNU. Views are personal.
