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Donald Trump’s return to the power in the United States has left Washington’s allies scratching their heads on the issue of security. US allies were alarmed when Trump, following a heated argument with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House, withdrew military and intelligence support to Kyiv. In South Korea, this made people realise the US security umbrella may no longer be reliable in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.
South Koreans were also left anxious when Trump, just hours after taking office in January, described Pyongyang as a "nuclear power." Some drew conclusions whether the US would treat North Korea as an establish nuclear state with no ambition of denuclearisation on the peninsula.
Debate over nuclear arms intensifies in South Korea
Amid all these developments, South Koreans are now increasingly calling for developing a nuclear arsenal of their own, which would not just help Seoul wean itself off overreliance on US but also ward off threats from the North.
"We can't always rely on the U.S. They're looking after themselves first now," Kim Min-ho, a 29-year-old IT worker in Seoul, was quoted as saying by Nikkei Asia.
"If Trump is going to charge us for protection, maybe it's time we protect ourselves. Why should North Korea have nuclear weapons but not us?"
A Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) survey last year revealed that 45 per cent of South Koreans now preferred having nukes of their own, against 40 per cent who still preferred reliance on US security umbrella. It was for the first time that more people favoured nuclear option against US reliance. Overall, some 60 to 70 per cent people in South Korea remain in favour of developing nuclear weapons but the support falls to just 30 to 40 per cent when they are informed about associated costs, including potential sanctions from the global community and collapse of alliances.
"What looks like overwhelming support becomes far more cautious when costs are factored in," said Lee Sang-sin, a senior researcher at KINU, speaking at a policy forum in March.
The North Korea threat
South Korea’s relationship with nuclear weapons dates back to the 1970s when Seoul briefly pursued a covert nuclear programme. However, in recent years, as North Korea’s nuclear arsenal expands, the idea of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons has gained more attention. North Korea is estimated to have at least 50 nuclear warheads, and this number could increase significantly in the coming years.
North Korea’s growing ties with Russia have further complicated the security situation. Since late last year, North Korean troops have been confirmed to be on the ground in Ukraine, supporting Russia’s invasion. Analysts say North Korea is using the war to gain battlefield experience and test weapons that could be used in future conflicts in Northeast Asia.
Will US allow South Korea’s nuclearisation?
The Trump administration has not signalled any change in US policy but the Pentagon now includes officials who have supported Seoul’s nuclear ambitions in the past.
Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, for instance, has supported the idea of Seoul having nuclear weapons. Before taking office, even Trump himself said he wanted both South Korea and Japan to pursue nuclear weapons.
Interestingly, even North Korea may also support the South’s nuclear move as it could provide legitimacy to their own nuclear arsenal, forcing the world to completely abandon the denuclearisation of Korean Peninsula.
The regional implications of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons would be significant, experts warn. Such a move could prompt Japan to pursue its own nuclear arsenal, which would likely trigger a regional arms race in East Asia. China, which reacted strongly by imposing sanctions on South Korea when it deployed US missile defence systems in 2017—costing South Korea’s economy about $7.5 billion—would likely respond even more harshly to any nuclear weapons development in the region.
