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Latvia's intelligence service has ignited fresh concerns over escalating global tensions, revealing a major build-up of Russian military power and an alarming intensification of its surveillance operations on NATO in the Baltic Sea. With Russia’s war against Ukraine entering its fourth year and a peace deal or ceasefire nowhere in sight, the US-led NATO fears that Moscow could soon turn its military might on the western military alliance. A conflict between NATO and Russia will surely lead to World War 3.
Latvia’s intelligence service (MIDD) in its latest assessment says that Russia is boosting its military reforms and expanding surveillance activities around NATO military operations in the Baltic Sea.
These actions are creating tensions in the region, with NATO member states, especially Latvia, increasingly concerned about potential security risks.
What does MIDD say?
The MIDD’s latest report observes a major shift that can have a direct impact on the Baltic region and warns that Russia’s military ambitions include increasing its armed forces from one to 1.5 million soldiers. Russia has been reorganizing its military units and bases near Latvia’s border.
But the full effects of these reforms are expected to take years, even a decade.
Russia’s Western Military District, which is directly adjacent to Latvia, has undergone significant restructuring, creating two new strategic military axes: the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts.
This restructuring comes in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, stirring further unease in Moscow.
The MIDD also stresses that the immediate threat to Latvia is still relatively low, as Russia’s military resources are still being diverted to the war in Ukraine. While the prospects of World War 3 are not near, Russia’s belligerence could soon turn the tide.
The intelligence report highlights incidents involving unauthorized airspace violations and aggressive maneuvers near NATO ships and aircraft, and Latvia’s defense officials are closely monitoring these developments.
In the past year, Latvia has seen a rise in sabotage, diversions, and other malicious activities aimed at destabilizing the region.
Latvia’s President, Edgars Rinkēvičs, has called for stronger defense spending across Europe, stressing the need for NATO to remain vigilant against Russia’s actions.
World War 3: Who holds the military edge, NATO or Russia?
Russia is rapidly reforming its armed forces and has launched its largest conscription (compulsory military service) drive in over a decade. But military experts say Moscow remains significantly outmatched by NATO’s collective firepower.
Russia’s defense budget is estimated to rise to an estimated €120 billion in 2025, over 6% of its GDP, quadrupling since 2021. President Putin aims to raise active troop numbers to 1.5 million, but NATO, now 32 members strong with Finland and Sweden onboard, fields a combined 3.4 million active soldiers.
In almost every category, tanks, aircraft, warships, and armored vehicles, NATO holds a clear numerical and technological edge.
But some analysts still warn that the danger lies not in Russia winning a conventional war, but in how it might react if it starts losing one.
Germany’s intelligence services have cautioned that Putin could try to test NATO’s unity, possibly challenging the credibility of Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defense clause.
The threat of nuclear escalation looms over any confrontation: both sides are nearly matched, with NATO’s three nuclear powers—the US, UK, and France—holding a combined 5,559 warheads to Russia’s 5,580.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, with neither side showing signs of backing down. Coupled with President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and willingness to consider force in dealings with allies, the world simply cannot afford a global war
