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The Russian terms presented in talks in Turkey made it clear that Vladimir Putin seeks Ukraine's capitulation and not peace.
While Ukraine made some concessions in terms presented in the second round of talks in Istanbul, Russian leader Putin stuck to his maximalist demands and ruled out any possibility of arriving at middle ground to make peace.
Putin has not just sought the recognition of Ukrainian territories that Russia has occupied since 2014, but has also sought Ukraine's surrender of all territories it claims but not occupies at the moment. In provisions similar to those imposed on Germany after the World War I in the Treaty of Versailles, Putin has also sought restrictions on the size, deployment, and equipment of Ukrainian military after the end of the war.
In addition to complete occupation of five provinces of Ukraine (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia), Putin has also sought the creation of a buffer zone of an unspecified length on the Ukrainian side of the new border that would essentially further reduce Ukraine's territory.
Besides ruling out Ukraine's membership of Nato, Putin has also sought to restrict Ukraine's military partnerships and ban hosting foreign troops on its soil.
With such terms, it is clear that Putin is prolonging the negotiations so that he could continue his massive attacks as long as possible to pressure Ukraine into acceptance, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation.
Kirillova tells Firstpost, "Such conditions are unacceptable for Ukraine. Putin is deliberately setting impossible conditions to prolong the negotiations. He is hoping for a summer offensive to break the will of Ukrainian society. Ukraine can only hope that President Trump will lose patience with Putin sooner than that."
Zelenskyy offers concessions, Putin doubles down on maximalist terms
In a sharp deviation from the initial phase of the war, Zelenskyy has not pressed for the return of territories under Russian occupation. He has only demanded that the international community should not recognise the occupation.
Previously, Zelenskyy has also implied that Ukraine would be okay with Russia keeping control of whatever territory is under its control without any international recognition. However, Putin has doubled down on maximalist territorial demands.
Russia occupies around 19 per cent of Ukraine's territories across five provinces — 12 per cent was occupied in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea.
Putin has not just demanded the recognition of all territories under its control but has also sought the surrender of additional territories it claims but does not control. With the buffer zone, Putin has sought around at least 25 per cent of Ukrainian territory in total — nearly a third more than it currently controls.
Putin has also sought to change the character of Ukraine as a nation. He has sought to insert the Russian language into formal business, restore the pro-Russia Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and ban what he calls "nationalist formations" in Ukraine.
While Ukraine has sought a ceasefire monitoring by the United States and other countries, Putin has sought to make any ceasefire agreement controlled by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). That would mean that Russia would call shots as Russia and its principal ally China hold veto at the UNSC.
A day after Russia formally submitted these demands, Andriy Yermak, the Chief of Staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that the Russian position remains "unconstructive" and Putin was "stalling and manipulating the negotiation process".
Yermak further said that Russia has "no genuine intention of ceasing hostilities" and only strong sanctions can compel Russia to engage in serious negotiations.
All eyes on Trump — and perhaps Ukrainian drones
As Ukraine-Russia talks are expectedly making no substantial progress, all eyes are on US President Donald Trump — and on perhaps Ukrainian drones.
The talks in Istanbul were held a day after Ukraine launched an audacious drone attack inside Russia in which it struck five Russian airbases and destroyed a third of Russian long-range bomber and surveillance fleet. The attack shortly after the destruction of two railway bridges. A day after the talks were held, Ukraine attacked the Kerch bridge that connects occupied Crimea with Russia.
With such attacks, Ukraine has sought relative position of strength in ongoing talks and has shown it does hold cards, says Swasti Rao, a scholar of European affairs at the Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), Sonipat.
"While the final outcome is unlikely to change with such attacks, which means that Ukraine would not get the occupied land back, such strikes allow Ukraine to have a firm place at the negotiating table and ensure that Trump and Putin do not cut a deal about the war without Ukraine and Europe's final say. Such strikes also send a message to Moscow and Washington DC that Ukraine can also deliver blows and the war is not as one sided as one would have thought," says Rao, an Associate Professor and Associate Dean of Global Initiatives at JSIA.
Even though Trump is under pressure from all sides to toughen up his stance on Putin, he has not shown any indication that he is about to do that. Instead, it is his actions that enabled Putin to double down on his maximalist positions in ongoing peace talks. Last month, even as Putin defied all ceasefire proposals that Ukraine accepted and defied Trump's direct public appeals to not attack civilians, Trump rewarded Putin by dropping his longstanding demand of an immediate ceasefire and endorsing Putin's demand of direct talks.
Kirillova, the Russia analyst at Jamestown Foundation, says that Trump wants the war to end in Ukraine irrespective of the way it ends.
"The root causes of the war or its moral dimensions appear to be of secondary importance to him. He is focused on delivering results and, in doing so, he is exerting pressure on the weaker party — Ukraine. Consequently, he is offering certain concessions to Putin while pressuring Zelensky," says Kirillova.
Whether Putin's continued defiance and Ukraine's stunning comeback in the conflict changes Trump's stance remains to be seen.
