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New Delhi: The Indian Air Force is standing at a critical crossroads. With the retirement of the last MiG-21 scheduled this month, its operational strength will fall to just 29 fighter squadrons. Military planners insist the bare minimum for credible air defense is 42 squadrons. Within a few years, the Jaguar, Mirage-2000 and MiG-29 fleets will also exit service. The shortfall will only grow deeper.
After these retirements, the burden will rest almost entirely on Su-30MKI squadrons, a handful of Rafales and the indigenous Tejas. All are 4.5-generation platforms. The rest of the world is moving to fifth-generation technology. China already fields the J-20 and has developed the J-35 stealth fighter, soon to be handed over to Pakistan. Turkey has meanwhile offered Islamabad its KAAN fighter. A powerful axis of China, Pakistan and Turkey is forming right on India’s doorstep.
India’s homegrown Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still in design. Service entry is not expected before 2032 or 2033. The Air Force needs an answer much sooner. The choice narrows to three paths: the American F-35, the Russian Su-57E or more Rafales from France.
The urgency became clearer during Operation Sindoor in May, when Indian and Pakistani fighter jets clashed in an intense engagement. Commanders realised that future air battles will not be won by speed or pilot skill alone. Sensor fusion and seamless interoperability will decide outcomes. India’s mixed fleet still lacks a standardised data link, leaving gaps in situational awareness.
Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh has admitted that the Air Force needs 35 to 40 new jets every year to stay combat-ready. In July, Defence Secretary R.K. Singh confirmed India is evaluating fifth-generation fighters from “friendly nations”. A high-level committee under his chairmanship submitted recommendations to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in March. The committee identified fighter procurement as a top priority for force capability enhancement.
Former Air Marshal Anil Chopra says the decision will not be easy. “The Americans remain unpredictable under Trump. Washington is keen to push F-16s and F-15Es, not the F-35. If India urgently needs a fifth-generation stop-gap, Su-57 is a practical option. Another route is to acquire more Rafales and equip them with long-range air-to-air missiles,” he said.
Each option comes with cost and capability trade-offs. The F-35 costs around $100 million per unit (Rs 865 crore). The Su-57E is cheaper at about $65 million (Rs 562 crore). Co-production in India could lower its price further.
But American jets, though expensive, offer better long-term maintenance. Russian platforms are cheaper but have shorter service lives. The United States could also restrict India to a downgraded F-35 export variant, undermining the deal. France is open to selling more Rafales but will not release source codes. That limitation prevents India from integrating its own weapons or upgrading the jet independently, a weakness exposed during the India’s military offensive against Pakistan in response to April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.
India faces a stark reality. Its skies demand advanced fighters now, but the available choices all carry risks. The F-35 brings unmatched technology at a steep price. The Su-57 offers affordability but uncertain reliability. The Rafale provides familiarity but limited future potential.
In the backdrop, China, Pakistan and Turkey are racing ahead with stealth aircraft. The question of who guards Indian skies is no longer abstract. It is immediate.
