The world long suspected it - Pakistan's own economist is now saying it aloud. The country's 'game-changer' corridor has turned into a ghost route. More than a decade after the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was announced as the project that would transform Pakistan's fortunes, economist Dr Kaiser Bengali says little investment materialised and that Gwadar Port - once sold as the heart of the plan - remains economically unviable.
"Every government says the previous one ruined the economy and promises to fix it. We've been seeing this hypocrisy for 40–50 years," the economist said while speaking in a podcast conversation with journalist Faisal Waheed. They were discussing Pakistan's economy, which Kaisar believes is sinking by the day.
"First, there was CPEC - called a game-changer - then SIFC, Green Initiative, Udaan Pakistan, now minerals. These are just slogans. There's no real outcome."
'CPEC Brought Almost Nothing'
The CPEC was launched in 2013 with an initial investment plan of $46.5 billion. The plan was later expanded to $62 billion as more projects were added over time. However, the economist now says that no major investment actually came.
Asked whether the billions promised under CPEC were loans or investments, Bengali said: "It was a combination, but almost nothing actually came. Many MOUs were signed, but an MOU is not an agreement - it's only a statement of intent. Beyond Lahore's Orange Train, I see nothing else tangible under CPEC."
He added that Gwadar Port still has only its original four berths and received no ships last year. He recounted that when he was in Balochistan, he visited Gwadar - "the port gate was locked with a small suitcase-style padlock. The guard had gone to his village."
Bengali, who has served as an advisor to the Chief Minister of Sindh, argued that Gwadar cannot become a transit or trade hub because its economic hinterland lies more than 1,000 kilometres away.
"We imported three wheat ships in 2008 just to prove Gwadar was alive. There was no need for it in Gwadar. The wheat was then brought from Gwadar to Karachi, and Rs 2 billion were spent just on transporting it to Karachi. If they had unloaded the goods directly at Karachi, it would have saved Rs 2 billion."
The economist said Gwadar is economically unfeasible and that the port could only become viable if it were connected to Lokandi and Helmand in Afghanistan and made an exclusive Afghan transit corridor.
"Until then, Gwadar cannot be economically viable. But given the current situation with Afghanistan, the country no longer wants to import anything through Pakistan. Afghanistan now prefers Chabahar, and the railway link between Chabahar and Afghanistan is complete."
China's Strategic Interest in Pakistan
According to Bengali, China's motives in Gwadar are not economic but military. "China's interest in Gwadar is military. If war breaks out in the South China Sea, they will use this as a backdoor. Pakistan never looked at its own economic interests; it just sought money from China."
He concluded that Gwadar could have transformed Pakistan's economic geography as Tarbela and Mangla dams once did, but "that would have required putting Pakistan's own development before Chinese strategic needs."
Pakistan sees Gwadar Port as a critical strategic asset to counter India. Located in Baluchistan, the port offers China naval access to the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean. Gwadar is also close to Iran's Chabahar Port, where India has made significant investments to secure its own trade and transit routes to Central Asia and Afghanistan.