India continues to wait for the southwest monsoon as June has begun.
Normally, the rains arrive in Kerala around June 1, bringing relief from the intense summer heat and starting the crucial farming season. But this year, the onset is delayed by a few days, leaving people across the country watching the skies with anticipation.
The delay came in phases with the forecast for the monsoon onset date revised multiple times by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). And furthermore, it goes without saying that the delay has been deemed concerning.
WHY INDIA BADLY NEEDS MONSOON?
The southwest monsoon is the lifeline for India, delivering 70–80% of the country's annual rainfall between June and September.
Farmers rely on it to sow rice, pulses, and other essential crops that feed the nation. Cities depend on it to fill reservoirs, ease water shortages, and bring down temperatures.
A timely and strong monsoon means greener fields, fuller lakes, and stable food prices, but when it is late or weak, the effects ripple through daily life, and show up as prolonged heatwaves, dry spells, and pressure on the economy from agriculture to power supply.
This thus begs the question: why is it that the monsoon is repeatedly missing the deadline?
Weather experts are highlighting an unusual calm in the Indian Ocean as one of the main reasons behind the slow progress.
IS THE INDIAN OCEAN DELAYING MONSOON?
The Indian Ocean usually acts like a factory for monsoon weather. The ocean's warm waters help create rain-bearing clouds and low-pressure systems that move northward into India.
But right now, this factory is unusually idle.
Satellite images show vast stretches of clear skies south of India, with very few clouds or rain systems forming. Without these fresh systems developing and advancing north, the monsoon winds are struggling to gain full strength and push deeper into the country.
This explains why the rains have not yet fully settled over Kerala and other parts of the mainland, even as some pre-monsoon showers appear here and there.
This lack of activity is connected to broader climate patterns.
A developing El Nino in the Pacific often weakens the Indian monsoon by changing wind flows and shifting rainfall away from the region. The IMD has already forecast that the 2026 southwest monsoon will bring only about 90% of normal rainfall, which is classified as "below normal."But that does not mean that monsoon will not arrive at all. In fact, as the recent update by IMD's weather models says, the monsoon onset may still occur in the coming days.
However, the overall picture suggests caution, with the possibility of uneven rains and some regions receiving less than usual.
For now, India remains under the summer Sun, keeping an eye on the ocean and hoping that the clear skies south of India will soon fill with rain-bearing clouds. The monsoon will arrive, as it always does. But this year, the wait feels longer than usual.