"The world is ending on November 13, 2026" - atleast this is what a a physicist believed back in the 1960s. Heinz von Foerster and his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot in article titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026" gave the date of the end of the world back in 1960. It was even published in the journal Science. Predicting that the human population would approach infinity by this date, resulting in self-annihilation, the authors argued for a collaborative effort to address population growth as the world's birth rates began to decline.
Who was Heinz von Foerster
Heinz von Foerster was a physicist, philosopher and eclectic researcher. He was based in Vienna where he studied physics and had a doctorate from the University of Breslau. During World War II, he hid his Jewish ancestry to work in Berlin radar labs. In 1949, Foerster moved to the United States where he worked at the University of Illinois as the head of Electron Tube Laboratory. Around a decade later, he founded its Biological Computer Laboratory.
The Doomsday prediction
Heinz von Foerster co-wrote a study in 1960 about overpopulation. The study argued that the human populations may experience growth at an increasing rate, supported by the notion of enhanced communication and collaboration within societies. The authors asserted that rising population density could create further opportunities for collaboration, allowing human numbers to outpace typical growth expectations.134637084
The researchers based their projections on 24 historical estimates of the world population spanning two millennia. They presented their findings in a structured manner, employing mathematical equations to illustrate their conclusion that the global population would reach infinity by 2026.
“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve,” they warned. “They will be squeezed to death.” This phrase attracted significant public interest and scientific scrutiny.
Criticism
The article ignited debates among mathematicians and demographers who critiqued its methodology. It reported got huge media attention then, becoming a topic of conversation in venues such as The New York Times and even influencing debates on issues ranging from environmental policy to reproductive rights. The Doomsday equation became a staple in discussions about population growth, and many continued to refer to it throughout the 1970s and 1980s as its projections remained credible.Some said the article is “too ridiculous to comment".
But by 1993, global population figures began to lag behind the forecasts. Birth rates began to decline significantly; according to current estimates, they are slightly less than half of what they were in 1960.
2026 presents a different scenario
Despite the drastic and sensational predictions for 2026, it is widely believed that the global community will not face an imminent "Doomsday" scenario. The potential for collaboration and cooperative problem-solving remains a key theme in addressing population sustainability moving forward.As the date of November 13, 2026 approaches, it is unlikely that Earth will experience the predicted population explosion described in the 1960 article. Instead, now many are worried about the declining population growth. SpaceX founder Elon Musk have time and again pointed out the declining birth rate which he said is the biggest threat facing civilisation.