.jpeg)
By all appearances, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a long, calculated game, one that exploits ambiguity, probes NATO’s thresholds, and seeks to sow disunity in the West. The recent surge in drone incursions, airspace violations and suspected sabotage activities across Northern and Eastern Europe point not to random provocations, but to a coordinated strategy designed to stretch the alliance’s defense posture, test its political will, and slowly erode its collective confidence.
A pattern of escalation
In the span of just a few weeks, European NATO states have faced a troubling string of hostile activity. Drones temporarily shut down Copenhagen Airport, Denmark’s main hub, on Monday. Denmark said it was the most serious attack yet on its critical infrastructure and linked them to a series of suspected Russian drone incursions and other disruptions across Europe. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the drone activity seemed designed "to disrupt and create unrest", though authorities refrained from naming suspects. "We are obviously not ruling out any options in relation to who is behind it. And it is clear that this fits in with the developments we have observed recently with other drone attacks, violations of airspace, and hacker attacks on European airports," Frederiksen said. In comments to public broadcaster DR, Frederiksen noted recent suspected Russian drone incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace, as well as Estonia reporting that Russian fighter jets had entered its airspace on Friday. "I certainly cannot deny in any way that it is Russia," she said. Oslo Airport in Norway was also affected by a drone incident on the same night as the Copenhagen disruption.
Russia denied on Tuesday that it was connected to the drone flights that forced Copenhagen airport to close its airspace for hours overnight, after Denmark's Prime Minister said she could not rule out Russian involvement. "We hear unfounded accusations from there every time. Perhaps a party that takes a serious, responsible position shouldn't make such unfounded accusations time and again," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
In several recent incidents, Russian drones had entered Polish and Romanian airspace, with some shot down; Russian fighter jets were intercepted after breaching Estonian airspace; and Germany and Sweden scrambled jets to monitor a Russian surveillance plane over the Baltic.
While none of these incidents individually breach NATO’s Article 5 threshold for a collective military response, the cumulative effect is unmistakable: Russia seems to be deliberately probing NATO’s perimeter.
Strategic ambiguity: The new theater of war
Moscow’s provocations sit in the gray zone, a strategic space between war and peace where Russia excels. These drone and airspace violations are not overtly aggressive acts of war. Rather, they are tactical moves designed to provoke uncertainty and hesitation. They serve multiple strategic objectives for Putin.
Each incident is a tool to test how fast do countries react, what systems are triggered and what political statements follow? When NATO countries respond to cheap foam-and-wood drones with multi-million-dollar weapon systems, the cost asymmetry benefits Russia. It's an economic war of attrition. Temporarily halting airport operations with simple drone technology chips away at public trust in the state’s ability to ensure basic security. If European countries start redirecting weapons and attention to their own domestic air defense, support for Ukraine weakens which suits Putin’s broader war strategy. Russia calculates that not all NATO countries will have the same appetite for escalation, creating fissures within the alliance. It tests which countries are hawkish, and which are reluctant.
Nato’s dilemma
Despite growing alarm, NATO’s response has thus far been largely confined to diplomatic statements, emergency meetings and airspace patrols. And there are good reasons for this caution. Military restraint is strategic. Shooting down a Russian plane or drone could escalate unpredictably. Though there is the precedent of Turkey downing a Russian jet in 2015 without triggering a war, in the current context with war already raging in Ukraine, the stakes are higher.
Air defense gaps in Nato security are real. As Ulrike Franke, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, has told Politic, NATO countries lack the mid-range, cost-effective counter-drone systems needed to deal with Russia’s inexpensive Geran-2 (or "Gerbera") drones. Western militaries are over-reliant on high-end assets such as F-35s and Patriots to intercept low-cost threats.
The U.S. response under President Donald Trump remains notably muted compared to European alarm. If the U.S. posture appears uncertain, Nato unity weakens, and Putin takes notice.
Where is the new provocation headed?
Putin’s strategy hinges on calibrated escalation, doing just enough to provoke unease, but not enough to justify a military response. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics summed it up well: Russia is "doing just enough not to cross a red line." This slow-burning approach mirrors Russia’s hybrid warfare playbook which includes psychological operations to undermine public morale, cyber disruptions to target critical infrastructure and kinetic incidents which have plausible deniability due to small-scale intrusions. It is a strategy designed to stretch the West thin, exploit political differences and keep Nato in a state of reactive posture.
If the current trend continues, Europe faces several risks. If Nato accepts these intrusions as the new status quo, it risks emboldening Russia to push further. One misstep -- a downed aircraft, a civilian casualty or a retaliatory strike -- could spiral beyond what either side intends. By forcing Europe to look inward, Russia can reduce pressure on its war effort in Ukraine.
Analysts are calling for more than meetings and statements. Nato can do rapid deployment of counter-drone systems, such as radar-linked jammers, directed energy weapons, and low-cost interceptors. It can invest in air defense coordination across EU and Nato frameworks, pooling radar data and intercept protocols. It can demand reassurance from the U.S., especially with rising political uncertainty, to ensure deterrence remains credible.
Putin is not necessarily trying to start a war with Nato, at least not at present. But he is actively testing its boundaries. His game plan is not about sudden conquest but about incremental pressure, gradual normalisation of Russian violations and the slow weakening of Nato resolve.
